analysis
US President Trump wants to massively expand oil and gas production. This will tend to dampen energy prices on the world market – and intensify Germany's dependency.
They are just one aspect in the flood of decrees that the new US President Donald Trump signed in office on the first day – but also the decree and announcements that affect energy policy are not missing from drama.
The most drastic sounds the proclamation of a “national energy emergency” that aims to massively expand the oil and gas production of the United States. In addition, there is the resusceptible exit from the Paris climate agreement, which gives the United States more freedom in the consumption of fossil energies in the medium term.
With these decisions, Trump addresses two cornerstones of his economic policy agenda: Higher oil and gas exports all over the world should help the chronic trade balance deficit, and more offer in Germany is intended to reduce stubborn inflation that is troubled by many Americans.
Development of fossil raw materials should be accelerated
Above all, the “national energy state” means that permits for exploration projects or the construction of pipelines can be granted faster. In addition, there is the abolition of protected areas in particular in Alaska to increase the promotion of oil and gas, but also uranium, coal and critical raw materials. “We will be a rich nation again, and it is the liquid gold under our feet that will help us,” said Trump in his inaugural speech. Already in the election campaign he had put the required expansion of oil and gas production under the motto “Drill, Baby, Drill”.
But how often cannot the dramatic announcements be put into concrete numbers. In fact, the immediate effects should remain manageable for the time being. Experts refer to the duration of development projects and that oil and gas production are predominantly in the hands of private companies. And these look primarily at the expected energy prices before they go to risk. “So far there are no clear signs of changed investments or additional holes on the basis of the election result,” commented Mark Haefele from the Global Wealth Management of UBS.
Also under Trump's predecessor Joe Biden, the USA was already the world's largest producer of oil and gas. The Democrat had even adorned himself with record numbers for funding – and defended itself against the presentation that his government brakes domestic production through bans. He referred to thousands of permits that are not used by industry.
Trump will “not stop” renewable energies
Despite Trump's aversion to renewable energies, experts do not expect a profound correction in the national energy mix. In a decree, the Republican had that permits are checked for new wind farms.
However, he will retain the investment program for the expansion of green energies contained in the inflation reduction act of the bidet government: “Too many of the targeted $ 368 billion investments should flow into republican states. There are estimates that there are already more than 300,000 new jobs gives, “says Christoph Bals, political managing director of the environmental organization Germanwatch. Trump's government will brake the “dynamics of the energy evolution” but will not stop.
Damping effect on energy prices
Hardly any additional demand for fossil energies can be expected from this page, which does not conflict with the plans of an export expansion. Overall, Trump's energy policy should definitely have a dampening of international oil and gas prices in the long term.
The additional offer would be welcome, especially on the worldwide gas market, as the current gas market report of the International Energy Agency (IEA) shows. Since the demand continues to increase and the supply increased more slowly than before the corona pandemic and the latest energy crisis, the global natural gas markets remained tense in 2025, according to the IEA.
Rapidly growing markets in Asia would have increased global gas demand by 2.8 percent last year to a new high of 115 billion cubic meters. At the same time, the below -average growth of liquid gas production (LNG) ensured a tight offer, explained the agency based in Paris.
Printing agent LNG?
This is accommodating Trump's plans, who also lifted the bidet government's approval for new LNG export terminals on Monday. According to expert estimates, the United States' export capacities could double in the next five years.
Europe will also gratefully accept the additional US gas in view of the departure from Russia. The EU Commission's statements are already going in this direction. This could go into the upcoming trade talks with higher imports to avert the impending US tariffs.
What is LNG?
LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) is the name for liquid gas. To get LNG, natural gas is cleaned of sulfur, nitrogen and carbon dioxide and cooled to temperatures of up to minus 162 ° C. This liquefies it. This process reduces the volume by 600 times, which means that very large quantities of the liquefied energy source can be stored and transported. LNG is color and odorless and not toxic. It can be used wherever normal natural gas is used. But it is brought back into a gaseous state.
Such considerations ensure discomfort in Germany. Minister of Economics Robert Habeck pointed out that more than 80 percent of fuel from the United States is already coming from the German LNG terminals.
After Germany has just made itself independent of Russian gas, Donald Trump's new energy policy threatens to push the country into a new dependency. In any case, the US President would be very welcome.
