analysis
The traffic light government is threatened with an early end. Vice Chancellor Habeck tries again to save the alliance. With an offer to the FDP. And not entirely without self-interest.
For days, Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck said little to nothing about the current traffic light crisis. So now this appearance on Monday afternoon, just a few minutes long.
He implores the coalition partners: “Standing together or being able to act – that is the alternative.” He is calling for a “great effort” to be put into drawing up the 2025 budget and getting the planned growth initiative off the ground.
And he has an offer: The Greens are backing down when it comes to the billions in Intel funding. Habeck actually wanted to spend the money on other climate or transformation projects since chip manufacturer Intel has put its factory plans on hold. Now he says: The billions “can of course now make a contribution to reducing the budget gap.”
Habeck is approaching Finance Minister Christian Lindner, who has asked for exactly that. The only remaining question is whether Habeck will release the entire ten billion euros to the FDP as a kind of reconciliation offer.
Your own crisis
That means: The Greens are trying everything again to somehow cement the coalition and save it over time. It's not all that surprising. Because the party actually has enough to do with itself: The Greens have to manage their own crisis – instead of a new traffic light crisis. In mid-November, the party will elect new chairmen at a federal delegates' conference in Wiesbaden.
The outgoing bosses, Ricarda Lang and Omid Nouripour, do not want to drive in any more stakes until then and are avoiding making any directional decisions. The possible new top duo, Franziska Brantner and Felix Banaszak, cannot yet fully act as party leaders.
Criticism from the grassroots
Because that would offend your own people and simply anticipate the vote at the party conference. After all, there are also opposing candidates. And there is criticism from the grassroots. Actually, Habeck and his favorite duo need every day to prepare for the party conference and smooth things over within the party: One of the motions that has received the most support so far, for example, calls for a completely different migration policy than the one pursued by the federal government.
The motion, which now has around 200 supporters, criticizes the motion, which “always calls for and decides on tougher measures based on the same pattern.” The Greens are just driven people. This is a clear criticism of the Ultra-Realo course, which is being pushed forward by the strong Baden-Württemberg regional association and probably by Habeck himself.
Core issue of climate protection?
The party conference also wants to discuss other topics – and thus about the realignment for the election year: Should the Greens focus more on the core issue of climate protection again? Should they go into the election campaign with demands on wealth and inheritance taxes?
Early elections would throw the party's realignment into a tailspin – or postpone all debates about it. Because if the coalition breaks, there is a risk of new elections as early as March. The Greens actually don't want to decide on their federal election program until another party conference at the end of March. By then, the new federal executive board should get used to it, as should the newly structured party headquarters around campaign manager Andreas Audretsch.
Party circles say that an election campaign in the next few months would also be extremely difficult from a purely organizational perspective. The Union, on the other hand, is much better prepared and can really switch to the election campaign immediately. CDU General Secretary Carsten Linnemann has been exulting for months that they are capable of campaigning straight away.
A party in the transition phase
In addition, the Greens are actually quite satisfied with the new surveys from Hamburg. Elections will take place there at the beginning of March. The Greens currently have over 20 percent. A red-green alliance would even get over 50 percent. The fear is that a collapsed coalition in Berlin can only harm these prospects.
The party is therefore in a transition phase, but is trying not to let it seem that way: “My feeling is that many people in the economy and society are longing for everyone to pull themselves together,” said Felix Banaszak on Sunday in the ARD. “That’s what Robert Habeck is doing now.”
The speechlessness, the withdrawal – that's “pulling the belt”. The Greens want to seem like they are the only adults in the room, it seems. Even party leader Nouripour emphasized on Monday: “It takes seriousness that does justice to the situation.”
Evasive questions
We still have a lot to do and now we have to implement the growth initiative and wait for the US election, says Nouripour. He evades questions about a possible red-green minority government in the federal government: “The question of a possible break does not arise,” says Nouripour. “We don't want a break. We also assume that others will be loyal to the contract.”
And yet they exist: the Greens, who want to get out of the traffic lights as quickly as possible. A group has also requested that the party conference discuss “leaving the government coalition” so that it becomes clear again what we Greens stand for.
The core clientele also seems to be losing interest in the coalition: in August there were loud voices ARDGermany trend: 59 percent of Green Party supporters are still satisfied with the government – the highest level of approval among the traffic light partners.
At the end of October, that had halved: only 30 percent of Green voters now rate the government positively. Habeck therefore has to manage the increasing dissatisfaction within his own ranks – and at the same time play for time and urge calm. This could also be one of the biggest challenges at the upcoming party conference, which was actually supposed to celebrate Habeck's top candidacy.
