Why the Öcalan call fuel hope

Kurdish leader Öcalan called up at the end of the fight against Turkey. What does this mean for his PKK party classified as a terrorist group? And what kind of the situation of the Kurds?

Who is the PKK and what does it stand for?

PKK is the abbreviation for Kurdistan's workers' party (Kurdish: Partiya Karkeren Kurdistane). It is a militant group that is fighting arms against the Turkish state and is classified by Turkey, the EU and the USA as a terrorist group. The PKK was founded in 1978 by Abdullah Öcalan, mainly in response to the situation of the Kurds in Turkey, which are politically, socially and culturally oppressed.

At the beginning of her foundation, she was a political organization to called the Kurds to united resistance to the Turkish government. Later she changed into a militant movement that increasingly started violent means to achieve her goals and also committed terrorist attacks on civilians. The Turkish military has been militarily against the PKK for years. According to the non -governmental organization International Crisis Group, around 40,000 people have been killed in the context of the conflict.

Today the PKK has its headquarters in the Kandil mountains and is also present in Turkey, Syria and Europe. In the meantime, the PKK is no longer expressly advocating for an independent Kurdish state, but for extensive autonomy and rights for Kurds within the existing states.

Why does the Öcalan call come now?

The fact that Öcalan is now calling to put down the weapons and dissolving the PKK is also due to an initiative of the Ultranationalist government partner of Erdogan, the MHP. Her boss, Devlet Bahceli, previously pronounced opponent of reconciliation with the PKK, had brought into play in October in October, who has been imprisoned on the Turkish island of Imrali for 26 years, the PKK should put down and dissolve.

Experts see several reasons for this. On the one hand, the PKK in Iraq was weakened by the Turkish attacks and thus in a position to negotiate with a weapon laying. In the Kurdish population, too, the demand for the end of the fights is growing. In addition, a power vacuum has been created in the region in the region since the attack of the terrorist militia Hamas on Israel and the following Gaza War, the weakening of Iran and the collapse of the Assad regime in the region-both Kurds and Turkey wanted to design this.

What does Erdogan promise from negotiations?

For the Turkish government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, disarming PKK would be a historical achievement and tangible political capital. Erdogan's amended constitutional amendment should play a not insignificant role in order to be able to run again as president. For this he needs, for example, the voices of the Percurdish Party. A cooperation with the Kurds in the region could appear to be attractive in the sense of a power of power, says political professor Arzu Yilmaz. This is not the first choice, which is why Turkey is particularly interested in building a strong government in Syria, which the Kurds cut in their influence there.

Will the PKK follow the call?

Immediate weapon is unlikely to be, even if Öcalan continues to have great symbolic power in the PKK. The call is therefore perceived as a possible start of negotiations. The PKK should insist on consideration.

Turkey regularly takes militarily against PKK positions in Iraq and Syria. The Kurdish militia YPG, which Ankara considers as an offshoot of the PKK, controls a large area in northern Syria. It is unclear whether there are also assurances with a view to northern Syria. Among other things, Öcalan's explanation states: “All groups have to lay down the weapons and the PKK has to dissolve.” He left open which groups he meant next to the PKK.

There are still open questions anyway. Gönül Tol, author and Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, wrote on the platform X that the status of the Kurds in Syria was still unclear, which the Kurds received in return and what happens to the fighters after decommissioning.

What consequences would have a Peace process For the Kurds?

The Kurds in Turkey have been calling for social and political equality for decades. This is also put forward: negotiation points could be the recognition of the Kurdish as a national language or the change in constitutional article 66, which says that every Turkish citizen is Turk.

Another central demand for the Kurdish side is the termination of the practice of using compulsory administrators. In the provinces in Turkey ruled by the Percurdian Party, mayors are repeatedly replaced by government -related forced administrators. Last but not least, the end of the Öcalan isolated is also required. It is unclear whether the fate of the Erdogan critic and former boss of the Prourdische Party, Demirta Demirtas, who has been detained since 2016, could be part of negotiations.

How could the process fail?

Doubts about a successful peace process are fueled by a new government wave of repression against the opposition, including the Kurds. In the course of this, hundreds of terrorist support have already been arrested.

In addition to the PKK, an actual peace process would also have to include other Kurdish groups and actors, because the Kurdish question goes beyond the armed struggle between the PKK and the Turkish government. Observers also say that a serious peace process can only go hand in hand with at least partial democratization. Many doubt that she can happen under Erdogan.

What are the reactions in Turkey and Syria?

In many cities in the southeast of Turkey, including Diyarbakir, where people had been waiting for the announced, “historical” explanation of the 75-year-old Kurdish leader for weeks, danced and sang hundreds of people on the streets.

In Syria, the commander of the Syrian democratic forces (SDF), Maslum Abdi, Öcalan's demand for the ceasing of the fights welcomed. According to the Reuters news agency, however, he said in an online conversation that this “had nothing to do with us in Syria”. If there was peace in Turkey, there would be no excuse for the government in Ankara to continue attacking the Kurds in Syria.

How reacts that Federal government?

The federal government welcomed Öcalan's call to dissolve the PKK as a “historical opportunity”. This offers “the historical opportunity to break through the decades of terror, violence and retaliation, which tens of thousands of people cost life,” said the Federal Foreign Office.

An end to violence is “the important first step”. The Turkish parliament now has a central role in shaping the political process. The federal government is ready to support such a process.

Dawid Bartelt, office manager of the Heinrich Böll Foundation in Istanbul, showed himself in an interview with the WDR5-Ings show ECho of the day optimistic. The call could “actually become a win-win situation in the best case”. The PKK has long lost the opportunity to move anything politically about purely military operations in Turkey “. Nevertheless, it is still strong. That is why it is in the interest of the Turkish government and by President Erdogan personally to reduce the threat from the PKK. “I think Erdogan also knows that living together with 20 percent of the population needs a future,” said Bartelt.