What stands in the way of a ceasefire

There are many reasons for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and an agreement to release the Israeli hostages – but there are still high hurdles. What exactly is being argued about?

There is a lot at stake in the negotiations on a ceasefire in Gaza. First of all, it is about preventing a major escalation in the Middle East. After the targeted killings of Ismail Haniya, the political head of Hamas in Tehran, and Fuad Shukr, a military chief of the Hezbollah militia in Beirut, Lebanon, Iran and Hezbollah have vowed retaliation.

But the major blow against Israel has not yet been struck. This is probably due to massive international pressure – but also to new hopes for a ceasefire in Gaza.

The humanitarian situation there remains catastrophic – even in view of more than 40,000 dead and more than 90,000 wounded – and could become even worse. In view of the widespread destruction in the Gaza Strip, the health system there is only partially functioning.

And finally, there are the hostages in the hands of Hamas and other terrorist organizations. Of the 109 remaining hostages, more than 40 are said to be dead – the number could be even higher. Relatives and US Secretary of State Blinken are talking about a “last chance” to get hostages out of the Gaza Strip alive.

There are enough reasons for a ceasefire and an agreement to release the hostages, but there are still high hurdles. The sticking points:

Temporary ceasefire or permanent Armistice?

The plan, which US President Joe Biden presented in May, envisages three phases: a six-week ceasefire, during which time negotiations on the second phase, a permanent ceasefire – and finally the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip.

Hamas is concerned about guarantees for an end to the war in Gaza. For the terrorist organization, this is not only about its military survival, but also about its political survival.

Israel's government, on the other hand, is demanding that the war be allowed to continue after a six-week ceasefire. According to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the goal is “total victory” and the “destruction of Hamas”. Recently, however, he has repeatedly spoken of “destruction of Hamas' military and governmental capabilities in Gaza”. After the terror attacks of October 7, Israel wants to prevent Gaza from posing any further danger to the country. Both positions seem difficult to reconcile.

Israeli military presence in Gaza

A key demand of Hamas is still the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip. The Biden plan, on the other hand, only talks about a withdrawal from the urban centers of the coastal strip. Until recently, Israel had insisted on controlling the so-called Philadelphia Corridor, the border between the Gaza Strip and Egypt. In the past, many weapons had entered the Palestinian territory via this border.

Control of the Rafah border crossing is also important to Israel. Until recently, Israel had rejected the suggestion that the Palestinian Authority (PA), which controls parts of the occupied West Bank, could also control this border crossing in the future. An expansion of the European Border Mission EU BAM, which was set up in 2005, is being discussed. However, it is unclear whether Israel and Hamas would agree to this.

EU BAM had supported the Palestinian Authority in setting up border protection and customs and monitored controls at the Palestinian-Egyptian border crossing at Rafah. However, after Hamas seized power, the mission in Gaza was suspended in June 2007.

The Netzarim Corridor, which was established during the Gaza War and divides the area into a northern and southern part, is also strategically important to Israel. Hamas is demanding the withdrawal of Israeli troops from here as well. Israel wants to prevent Hamas fighters from returning to the north of the Gaza Strip and therefore wants to maintain control here as well.

The exchange of hostages and prisoners

Even if there is an agreement in principle, a number of technical questions still need to be clarified. How many hostages will be released, when and in what order? How many Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons will be released in return? Which prisoners will be released and where will they go? What is the timetable for a withdrawal of Israeli troops?

The hostages kidnapped in the terrorist attack on October 7 are a kind of life insurance for Hamas. In the face of great military pressure, the organization is fighting for its survival. It still enjoys great support among parts of the Palestinian population.

Threatening Coalition breakdown in Israel

Benjamin Netanyahu's political survival is also at stake: Israel's prime minister has so far refused to accept responsibility for October 7. His right-wing extremist coalition partners are threatening to break up the coalition if concessions are made to the Palestinian side.

In the end, only pressure from outside could lead to a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. The USA, as the most important strategic partner, can exert this pressure on Israel, while Qatar and Egypt can exert pressure on Hamas. The outcome is uncertain.