analysis
Most recently, Russian troops advanced into eastern Ukraine. Donald Trump will soon take office in the USA. He wants to end the war quickly. What are Ukraine's prospects in 2025?
The new year hasn't started yet. But it is already becoming apparent that it will probably be another difficult and dark year for Ukraine. The country has been at war for almost three years. In the East, Russia is increasingly succeeding in occupying new areas. They are small villages that are conquered with great losses. But the Russian army is advancing.
At the same time, the number of civilian casualties in Ukraine is rising. According to UN figures, there have been more than 12,000 deaths since the major invasion began in 2022. In 2024 alone, more than 300 civilians were killed and over 1,800 people were injured by Russian air strikes.
That's why many people's expectations for the new year aren't too high. “There is always hope,” says Andriy Schechora, a 26-year-old fitness trainer. But after the past few years, it is difficult to expect anything from 2025. “Of course we want to be left alone,” says Anna Usowa. The 23-year-old works in a café. “But it seems to me that this is impossible. People are used to war, I notice it in myself.”
“Trump wants Europe to cope on its own”
Businessman Dmytro Yasjuk puts his hope in one man. “I believe that the war will end in 2025, when Trump becomes president. Everyone hopes so,” says the 35-year-old. On January 20th, Donald Trump takes office as President of the USA. This could be the first potentially defining moment of the new year for Ukraine.
During the election campaign, Trump declared that he would end the war quickly. According to a survey by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology, a majority of 45 percent believe that Trump could actually bring peace closer.
The future US president absolutely wants to end the war, says Anatoly Amelin. He is director of the think tank Ukrainian Institute for the Future. “Trump will do everything to achieve this, even cutting off aid to Ukraine. He wants Europe to deal with the European region on its own.” This means that the costs and burden for Europe in this area are increasing, says the expert.
Acceptance of sending European troops open
Amelin believes that in order to achieve a ceasefire, Ukraine will have to forego joining NATO for a certain period of time. Other security guarantees are therefore necessary. European countries would then have to send security contingents to Ukraine. “This could ensure security in the demilitarized areas and protect Ukrainian airspace from Russian drones and missiles.”
The proposal to send European troops to secure a ceasefire came from the environment of the future US President Trump. Whether the European states and Russia would ultimately agree to such proposals remains uncertain. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said they were “of course not satisfied” with such ideas.
armistice maybe, peace no
Amelin does not believe in a real end to the war and a real peace in 2025. At best, the conflict would be frozen. Russia wants to destroy Ukraine, the expert said. If there is a ceasefire, the war could flare up again at any time.
But there was at least one positive signal at the end of the old year. On Monday, Ukraine and Russia exchanged prisoners of war. According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, 189 Ukrainians have been freed from Russian captivity. According to the responsible coordination staff for prisoners of war, among them were defenders of the Azov steelworks in Mariupol. Before they surrendered, they defended the steelworks against the Russian army for two months in the spring of 2022.
The Ukrainian authorities did not name the number of Russian prisoners of war exchanged. Instead, the Russian Ministry of Defense said that 150 prisoners of war were exchanged on each side. Both sides thanked the United Arab Emirates for its mediation.
