interview
The Zelensky peace plan is to be presented tomorrow. Russia expert Major speaks in the daily topics about key points, Moscow's reaction – and what “very, very irritates” them about German politics.
daily topics: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's “victory plan” will only be revealed in full on Thursday after a meeting with US President Joe Biden. But you were recently in Kyiv and heard him talk about it. What are the key areas?
Claudia Major: The core idea of this plan can be seen from this speech in Kiev and other media reports: It is supposed to be a “victory plan” that is supposed to de facto pave the way to a second peace conference at the end of the year. The first peace conference took place in Switzerland in June – and the idea now is to have a second peace conference with Russian participation.
Zelensky said: Russia will probably only realize that it has to end the war when it has no other choice. There needs to be more military pressure to really end the war and start serious negotiations. And Zelensky's peace plan – the “Victory Plan” – is about exactly that.
One element that has already become known, for example, is the release of long-range Western weapons. What is being discussed is that, for example, Ukraine can target military targets in Russia – such as airfields or ammunition depots. And then the question on the table is how Ukraine can be secured in the long term after a possible end to the war. This is the question of security guarantees and possible NATO accession.
These seem to be two central elements: How can you really put pressure on Russia? Through further military support. And how can Ukraine's security be guaranteed in the long term? About security guarantees, for example.
To person
Dr. Claudia Major heads the security policy research group at the Science and Politics Foundation in Berlin. She is a lecturer at the Institut d'Etudes Politiques/Sciences Po Paris and a member of the “Advisory Board for Civilian Crisis Prevention” of the Foreign Office.
daily topics: And can we expect that US President Biden, to whom this plan will be presented on Thursday, will also support Ukraine in this sense?
Major: Honestly, we don't know. If he were to actually do that, i.e. if he were to increase military support – there is also talk of closer cooperation with the Ukrainian defense industry – and if he were to actually make a more positive statement about joining NATO, then that would be politically huge strong signals also to the other Western supporting states, including to the Europeans: that we are now pooling our strengths once again and that we are now once again launching very strong support for Ukraine.
Because the situation on the ground in Ukraine is catastrophic. You can currently see that with the attacks on Kharkiv. Russia continues to escalate every day and continues to destroy the population's livelihoods every day. The warning call that President Zelensky made is very, very urgent.
daily topics: But based on what is known so far: What are the chances that this plan will persuade Russia to negotiate?
Major: Russia has no interest in it at all. There are statements from Kremlin spokesman Peskov, who says: The “special operation” must be completed. The Foreign Ministry spokeswoman also said that there is no interest from the Russian side to participate in the peace conference or other conferences. And she once again referred to Putin's plan, which he published in June: It includes, among other things, that Ukraine must recognize the four territories that Russia has annexed – Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson – as Russian.
Putin also spoke again about “denazification,” i.e. a change in the elite, a system change in Ukraine and demilitarization. By this, Russia means a rejection of Ukraine's NATO membership, neutrality and a limitation of the Ukrainian armed forces so that they can de facto no longer defend themselves. That is, Russia is sticking to these conditions, which would de facto be a surrender, a dictated peace for Ukraine.
So, at the moment there is nothing to suggest that Russia has any interest in ending the war. And again, if we look at the attacks of the last few days, Russia continues to escalate every day.
daily topics: And against this background: How does Chancellor Olaf Scholz's recently repeated statement about still not giving approval for the use of certain German weapons on Russian territory fit in with this?
Major: I find this very, very irritating, because one of the federal government's guiding principles so far has been that Germany always acts in conjunction with its partners. And making this statement now, before Zelensky has even presented his plan and before other partners – the Americans or the British or the French – have commented, actually contradicts this leitmotif of acting together with partners.
And above all, this means you are giving away a means of exerting pressure on Russia without any necessity. One could also signal: If Russia does not stop attacking the Ukrainian civil infrastructure, the energy infrastructure and Kharkiv, then these weapons could be released. So it's actually incomprehensible why we are setting red lines for ourselves while Russia continues to escalate.
In the last two and a half years we have also seen that even if the Western states have withdrawn and set their own limits, this has not stopped Russia from escalating further. And this creates doubts as to whether Zelensky's “Victory Plan” can really be implemented when the Western ranks are already so divided.
Ingo Zamperoni conducted the conversation in tagesthemen. The interview was slightly edited for the written version.
