Australia chooses a new parliament today. The relationship with China and the USA also played a central role in the election campaign. US President Trump in particular could be decisive.
A new parliament is chosen in Australia today. The high cost of living dominated the election campaign, it is about the prices for eggs, for rents, for petrol.
But behind these urgent domestic issues there is also a foreign policy question: How should Australia master its relationships with China and the United States in the future? The Australian citizens are about jobs and national security.
“Complex relationship” to China
China is the greatest danger to Australia's security, the opposition leader Peter Dutton rumbled in the last of four election duels. He had previously promised to further enlarge the trade volume with the country.
Dutton stands up to the coalition from the conservative liberals and the even further right Nationals and challenges the incumbent prime minister Anthony Albanese from the Social Democratic Labor Party.
This formulates it more diploma: the world power China wants to increase its influence. The relationship with the most important trading partner is complex. The relationship with China had relaxed under Albanese's government, the bilateral trade volume increased to a record level. Australia's export hit is iron ore and mainly goes to China.
But it was only in February that a Marine maneuver China had caused unrest. Chinese warships crossed the Australian coast for days.
The United States needs Australia in the Indo-Pacific
In order to strengthen Australian defense ability, the Australian prime minister had agreed to expand the Aukus military alliance two years ago together with the then US President Joe Biden and the then British Premier Rishi Sunak. It is a security partnership with the USA and the United Kingdom, which enables Australia to build up its own brisk nuclear-powered submarines.
Traditions between the United States and Australia are traditionally tight. Despite the customs policy – Australia can rely on US President Donald Trump in security issues, both candidates emphasized in the Australian election campaign.
A current survey by the Lowy Institute shows that the vast majority of Australians basically considers the alliance with the USA to be “very” or “quite important” for the security of Australia. But only 36 percent of Australians expressed a certain level of trust in the United States to act responsibly. This marks a clear deep in the trust of the Australians compared to the United States.
Peter Dutton from the conservative Liberal Party of Australia wants to become the new prime minister in Canberra. He is considered populist and is sometimes compared to Donald Trump.
Australia's cattle and the trade war
The general import customs of ten percent also affects Australia's export goods – especially beef. According to Argentina, the country is the second largest supplier for the United States.
The International Monetary Fund IMF has recently reduced its growth for Australia to 1.6 percent. In January, the organization was still from 2.1 percent for the current year 2025.
The government under Albanese has nevertheless decided not to react “hand in hand” with China to the US tariffs. Beijing had offered Canberra to proceed with the USA in the trade dispute.
But Australia wants to reduce dependence on the US market, according to the announcement. At the same time, she set up a strategic financial reserve for critical minerals to make itself more independent of China in this area.
Does the Trump effect decide?
Who will perform this balancing act in the future and lead Australia through economically and geostrategically restless times? The 54-year-old Peter Dutton was sometimes compared to Trump because of his rhetoric and his political style. It is a comparison that he rejects himself, although he is a pronounced fan Donald Trumps, is strongly polarized and is considered hard conservative.
That could decide the result of the choice. Because in a development that resembles the Canadian election at the beginning of the week, the poll values for social democrats and conservatives in Australia have recently changed drastically.
As in Canada, duttons also led conservative for a long time, at the latest since 2023 they were clearly in front of Labor. But under the impression of Trump's politics, the political mood in both countries revolved. The final surveys are now giving Australia's official Premier Anthony Albanese slightly better chances of the election victory.
At that time, many Australians had associated his advancement to the head of government in 2022 with a feeling of relief and hope of political stability. After three years of global economic challenges and heated domestic debates, the 62-year-old, who is assigned to the left wing of the Labor party, is by no means certain. But the Trump effect could also secure the re-election.
