interview
Could the agreement between Israel and the terrorist Hamas be shaky again? Middle East expert Asseburg points to still unresolved questions in the agreement, but also sees great opportunities – for both sides.
tagesschau24: Even if there is still movement, how do you rate the agreement that is now on the table?
Muriel Asseburg: The agreement was indeed long overdue because it can finally end the cruel fate of the hostages and this terrible war in the Gaza Strip.
That in itself is a value. The agreement also offers the possibility that sufficient humanitarian aid can finally come to the Gaza Strip.
But the agreement also has a lot of unresolved questions, particularly in relation to phase two and phase three. And it is stretched over a very long period of time and can therefore be very susceptible to failure.
To person
Dr. Muriel Asseburg works at the Science and Politics Foundation in the Africa and Middle East research group. Her research interests include the Middle East conflict, Israel, the Palestinian territories and German, European and American policy towards the region.
Involvement of Hamas
tagesschau24: The Israeli government has not achieved Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's stated goal of eliminating Hamas. What does that mean?
Asseburg: This means that Hamas is still there. It remains a veto player. She must be included in discussions, we are seeing that in the current negotiations and we will also see that in the next steps.
Even if Hamas is very weakened and has lost some regional support after October 7th, and even if it is criticized by its own population – especially in the Gaza Strip – it is still there and ultimately has to find its place future arrangement for reconstruction and the question of governance in the Gaza Strip.
Cooperation of the US governments
tagesschau24: The plan for the agreement had basically been on the table since spring last year. The previous and the new US president apparently worked together. What role did they both play?
Asseburg: This was about a kind of cooperation. Between the Biden team on the one hand, which spent months exploring with both sides what a deal could look like, but did not put sufficient pressure on the parties to the conflict – and the new US government, which actually built up this pressure has.
The future President Donald Trump, for example, has sent his designated Middle East envoy to conduct these negotiations together and, in particular, to tighten the thumbscrews particularly towards the Israeli government and make it clear: This deal should happen now, before Trump takes office.
What we are now seeing after the initial announcement of the agreement are efforts to justify themselves, including in the domestic political context in Israel. To make it clear that Prime Minister Netanyahu did not agree lightly.
Lots of gateways
tagesschau24: There are still attacks. How likely is it that both sides – if an agreement does come about – stick to the agreed timetable?
Asseburg: It is a very fragile agreement. There are many ways in which you end up stuck at the first phase. At the same time, attempts were made to structure the agreement in such a way that both sides would be interested in moving on to phase two and phase three.
In my opinion, whether this succeeds depends crucially on whether the Trump administration, together with the other international mediators, especially Qatar and Egypt, sticks with it and supports this process. She must make it clear that it is not just about phase one, but also phases two and three.
That would then be a transition to a situation where we would talk about diplomacy again, where it would be about completely rebuilding the Gaza Strip. This would set in motion a process that would ultimately lead to a political settlement between Israelis and Palestinians that would produce self-determination for both peoples and a situation in which both could live safely and with dignity.
“There are incentives to make progress”
tagesschau24: What chances do you see for this to happen?
Asseburg: I don't think the chances are that bad because I think that Trump has a great interest in once again acting as a peacemaker in the Middle East. He also has a great interest in brokering a deal between Saudi Arabia, Israel and the USA, thus putting the culmination, so to speak, on the Abraham Accords that he brokered in his first term in office.
This interest is also very strong in Israel and therefore there are incentives to make progress here. Of course, this is offset by the concessions that Israel has to make – for example with regard to Palestinian sovereignty and to stabilization not only in the Gaza Strip, but also in the West Bank.
This in turn contradicts plans by parts of Prime Minister Netanyahu's coalition for the West Bank, namely the expansion of the settlement and annexation project there.
The interview was conducted by Kathrin Schlass, tagesschau24. The interview was slightly edited for the written version.
