analysis
Does the topic of pension play a role in the election campaign? In any case, the next government will have to deal with it. Economic experts think the parties' ideas are not largely enough.
The pension is certain that the pension is not certain – the topic is an eternal dispute, all the more in the hot election campaign time. There is only rare agreement in one point: that the pension does not go on.
It has been clear for decades that the birth -strong vintages are now retiring. And your pension must be financed – from a few young paying contributors, too few. The population share of people in retirement age will grow quickly and strongly by 2035.
An evaluation of the employer-related institute of the German Economy (IW) shows that 19.5 million employees of the so-called Babyboomer years will be lost to the German labor market over the next twelve years. However, only 12.5 million younger employees come after. The forecast is based on data from census 2022 and the Federal Statistical Office as well as on the IW's own calculations.
Society ages
Many ideas of the parties are on the table to stabilize and change the system. But Moritz Kraemer, chief economist at the Landesbank Baden-Württemberg, recognizes too little in-depth ideas, mainly it is about a “further”. Too little to solve the structural problems that come due to the demographic changes – i.e. the increasingly older society if the contribution pays too little.
No party calls for a higher retirement age. Germany's employer, however, pounds on this, who are pronounced for a coupling to the average life expectancy. According to currently applicable law, the age limit for the regular age pension without discounts is gradually increased to 67 years by 2031. The demand for a higher retirement age had repeatedly triggered violent reactions in the past, including the unions.
The younger ones need scope
According to many economists, the Germans also have to work longer, otherwise it will probably not be possible. Economist Kraemer says: “Let's make it attractive that people who can continue to work can also continue to work.” Martin Werding, one of the five “economy”, also finds incentives important for longer work. “In addition, we need, and that is the decisive air for breathing for the younger ones. So that in the next 20 years and really only when you provide an entire purchase phase – i.e. 40 years – in addition, actually have a second mainstay for old -age security.”
And in addition to the surcharge pension system, in which the age references of the current pension recipients are paid for by the contributions of the employees. This model will be completely stressed through the demography in the next few years, says the economy: “We have to prepare for an old -age insurance in the long term, which comes to marginalized with our difficult demography, and this includes additional capital coverage based on stocks with high yields and tolerable risks.”
What the parties are planning
The traffic light coalition had made the idea of a stock pension a so-called “generation capital”. The government no longer implemented the proposal. Investments are made in shares to generate additional income for the pension system.
In their election programs, the SPD, the left and the AfD do not mention the stock pension. The BSW speaks against it. The Union is planning a so-called early start pension, in which young people are supposed to provide capital themselves as early as possible. The Greens rely on a so -called “citizen fund”, with which yields are to be strengthened about low and medium pensions. The FDP continues to rely on shares for the capital coverage of the pension.
These are real concepts, but all of them are much too late, criticizes Endwirt Kraemer: “The train has left, you should have done that 20, 25 years ago.” Many people from the birth -strong vintages are about to retire; Now there is no longer time to build up capital coverage.
Pension model Sweden?
Sweden is considered a model for the stock pension. The mixture of levy-financed and capital-covered pension scheme has existed in Sweden since a pension reform around 25 years ago.
“But the Swedes have been doing this for many decades,” said Kraemer. “And they did it when the population was still young.”
The financing is unclear
In the election programs, there are hardly any specific statements on the question of how the increasing expenses for pensions are to be financed. Also not how the pension contribution rate should develop. A jump of currently 18.6 percent close to 20 percent is imminent, says the “economy” Werding: “It will be quite a shock.”
The economist assumes that the new legislative period will talk about a pension reform. And then the journey continues. “Then there will be 21, 22, 23 percent – the question is never, but when? Does it happen in ten years or does it take a little longer?”
In addition to the contributions, the federal funds for statutory pension insurance will also increase. And that makes the scope in the federal budget smaller for other expenses.
Economist Kraemer also raises the question: “If you say that the boys should do it, you have to clarify where the money should come from.” And the money has to come somewhere. Social associations such as the VDK have long been calling for officials and the self -employed to pay into statutory pension insurance. This widened and strengthened the pension base.
The Austria model
At this point, the view often goes to Austria, where this requirement has long been a reality. Since a large pension reform, almost all employees deposit into statutory pension insurance. One consequence: Austria has a significantly higher level of pension than Germany. According to German pension insurance, the average statutory pension in Austria was 1,645 euros in Austria, so it was around 500 euros higher than in Germany.
This is also financed in Austria through higher contribution rates and more funds from the federal government. On average, the population is somewhat younger than Germany. Self -employed figures also enter the state pension fund, and less and less civil servants are being civil servant.
A question of justice
Transfer such a model to Germany would be a gigantic task. The German Civil Service Association warns of a possible double burden because the various financing logic of the statutory pension and civil servants would have to be merged.
No matter how the next government will be composed: the pension should be one of its largest construction sites. Increasing pension and social contributions burden younger employed people, higher contribution rates also increase the additional wage costs for employers – and work is becoming more expensive. The question of pension remains one of justice.
