faq
It was a fall with an announcement: France's parliament has withdrawn its confidence in Prime Minister Barnier. What happens now? How is a new prime minister found – and why are there no new elections?
Why did Parliament overthrow the government?
French Prime Minister Michel Barnier pushed through the social budget for next year on Monday without parliamentary approval. To do this, he resorted to a controversial constitutional article that allows him to pass a law without a vote. Article 49.3 is also called “Big Bertha” in France in reference to a German gun of the same name from the First World War, which gives an idea of how controversial it is.
The article also stipulates that a vote of no confidence can then be made against the government. With his actions, Barnier had antagonized the parties on the right and left of parliament – and together they have had a majority in parliament since the parliamentary elections in the summer. Barnier now has to ask the president to dismiss his cabinet.
Now who will name a new one? Prime minister?
In France, the right to name the prime minister lies with the president. This is not a problem in times when the president has his own majority in parliament. But Macron's Ensemble group and the group around the conservative Republicans are far from an absolute majority of 289 MPs.
The left-wing alliance NFP (New Popular Front) and the right-wing national Rassemblement National (RN) can easily achieve an absolute majority if they agree – as is now the case with the vote of no confidence. Macron must take this into account if he wants to install a government that can act.
After the parliamentary elections in the summer, Macron took his time before appointing a Republican politician, Barnier. Barnier only survived a vote of no confidence immediately put forward by the NFP because the RN abstained at the time. Marine Le Pen explained her approach by wanting to see whether Barnier could present a balanced budget. Barnier was a man who could talk to all political camps. This shows that Macron now has to find a politician who can be recruited to one group or another.
The constitution does not prescribe a deadline for naming a prime minister. And yet time is now running out for Macron. The government actually wanted to bring further budget laws through parliament by the end of the year. This now seems unlikely to be possible unless Macron finds a prime minister who is approved by either the NFP or the RN. Until then, the current cabinet will remain in office as caretaker.
Alternatively, Macron could appoint a government of experts that would come into office without a political program.
Why is the budget question so crucial?
France has a gigantic budget deficit and must urgently reduce it in accordance with EU guidelines. Brussels has already initiated deficit proceedings against France because the deficit this year is six percent of economic output. That is twice as much as the EU stability rules allow. Barnier mentioned in parliament in October the gigantic sum of 3,228 billion euros in debt.
The government must therefore make deep cuts, and these are highly controversial between the parties. If parliament has not passed a budget by December 20th, the government can pass it through by decree. Whether a transitional government is allowed to use these constitutional rights is controversial.
Therefore, an alternative could be to only propose a budget for the beginning of the year via emergency legislation. However, this would have to be based on the expenditure for 2024 – and would then not result in any savings. For the previous government, this was akin to literally squaring the circle – and it will probably be the same for the next one.
Could there also be new elections?
This possibility is excluded. The constitution provides for a gap of at least one year between two parliamentary elections. Since Macron – to everyone's surprise – only had a new parliament elected shortly after the European elections at the beginning of July, he will not be able to have a new parliament elected until next summer at the earliest.
Until then he has to come to terms with the left and the right in parliament. However, the constitution also gives him extensive options to enact emergency measures or hold referendums.
Could Macron also resign?
That's what the opposition wants – but it's hardly likely. Macron is elected until 2027 and firmly rejected the idea of an early withdrawal on Tuesday. And unlike a prime minister, he cannot be voted out of parliament. In 2027, after two terms in office, it will be over for him – that's what the constitution stipulates.