The German economy has hardly been growing for years. High energy prices, global crises and homemade problems put a strain on the location. What do economists think particularly urgent to revitalize the economy?
For a long time, Germany was considered an economic stability anchor in Europe. But the economy has hardly been growing for five years. High energy prices are burdening companies, more and more companies are leaving the country and consumers are becoming more hesitant when shopping. The location of Germany has lost attractiveness.
One might think that external circumstances such as the corona pandemic, the energy crisis and the weakness in China have hit Germany particularly hard. But the problems are obviously deeper.
Homemade problems
Experts also see long -term, homemade omissions. “There was too little done in digitization, education and qualified immigration,” criticized Peter Tillmann, professor of macroeconomics at the University of Gießen.
Germany has rested for far too long on the laurels of its wealth model, says Guido Bünstorf, Professor of Economic Policy at the University of Kassel.
Germany was an export world champion, had long benefited from favorable energy from Russia and a strong demand from China. These times are over, says Bünstorf. “We have rely on an old prosperity model for too long. At the same time, a lot of bureaucracy and high taxes for companies paralyze the location of Germany.
Responsibility of the Scholz government – but not only
The question of the causes of the situation is complex. “The dependence on Russian gas, for example, was a strategic mistake,” says Volker Wieland, a former member of the expert council on the assessment of the overall economic development (“farmers”) and professor at the Goethe University in Frankfurt. He sees a partial debt among the previous governments.
But Wieland believes that the coalition of the SPD, Greens and FDP under Chancellor Olaf Scholz reacted incorrectly to the energy crisis. He sees a large part of the problems in their decisions. “The traffic light government failed clearly,” says the economist. The shutdown of the nuclear power plants in the middle of the energy crisis was an error. “Instead of maximizing our own energy offer, we further weakened,” he says.
But the experts see deeper structural problems. Sinking investments, rising regulations and growing global competition have been burdening industry since 2018. “The traffic light government tightened the problems, but the basis for today's crisis was laid long before,” says the economist Peter Tillmann.
“Stable government best Business program “
The experts agree that there must be an economic policy change of course. Bureaucracy cuts, digitization and targeted immigration of specialists are at the top of the list of priorities.
Guido Bünstorf initially demands clear and reliable framework: “A stable government that communicates what she intends to do in the next four years would be the best economic stimulus program.” The current uncertainty maintains companies of investments and larger purchases.
The relief of companies is particularly important, says Wieland. “We need simple rules and less bureaucracy.” In addition, both corporate and income taxes would have to be noticeably reduced in order to make the location more competitive. “If necessary, the social systems would also have to be adjusted. This is the only area that grows with us.”
Energy policy must also be rethought: “Germany has to become more independent here.” According to the Frankfurt economist, in addition to renewable energies, technologies such as nuclear power and fracking should also play a role – “without ideological blinkers”. Guido Bünstorf, on the other hand, does not see a quick solution for the energy offer in new nuclear power plants.
Reforms in labor market and education
Reforms are necessary on the job market according to the judgment of the economist Tillmann. “Work has to be more worthwhile,” he demands, especially for lower deductions in low earners so that they keep a higher net content from gross. Targeted immigration of skilled workers is also crucial to combat the shortage of skilled workers.
Without better education, all of the experts asked, Germany will lose innovative strength in the long term. “Better schools, universities and further training courses are the key to prosperity,” said Tillmann. Companies would also have to become more flexible and invest more in research.
The debt brake divides the experts. Volker Wieland clearly advocates her retention: “We must not burden the coming generations with excessive debt.” Guido Bünstorf, on the other hand, is open to reforms that could enable targeted investments without let the public debt get out of hand.
No straw fire, but solutions for structural problems
Despite different accents, the experts share a central demand: they urgently advise against short -sighted actions. “Premiums for electric cars or VAT cuts are straw fire that do not solve any structural problems,” warns Tillmann.
Public disputes within the coalition are also harmful. “The upcoming government must finally work together for long -term reforms,” says Bünstorf.
Despite all the challenges, the experts see opportunities to find the way out of the crisis – if the right measures are now taken. “Our strengths were always reliable politics, good infrastructure and productive workers,” said Tillmann. With the right reforms, Germany could build on it again.
