interview
The proposal of a ceasefire has hoped to put pressure on Ukrainian President Selenskyj together with the United States, says Russia expert Andreas Heinemann-Grüder. Moscow should now try to shine time.
Tagesschau24: What do you expect how Russia reacts to this proposal for a ceasefire?
Andreas Heinemann-Grüder: In Russia you are already getting upset, especially in the bloggear, where you triumphed ten days ago, US President Donald Trump would now be on your side. And now you see that you come under pressure yourself and that Trump's pressure on Ukraine has had an effect, because many things have no longer been mentioned.
The Russians will now ask: Can such a ceasefire be limited to air and water if there are fights on the ground at the same time? Because so far the conditions are completely unclear. And the question is also: do the Americans actually have pressure on the Russians, to which the Russian leadership should then react?
To person
Andreas Heinemann-Grüder is a senior fellow at the Center for Advanced Security, Strategic and Integration Studies at the University of Bonn and Senior Researcher at Bonn International Center for Conflict Studies. His research focuses on politics and conflicts in the post -Soviet area, comparative federalism, the revival of authoritarianism and violent political crises with irregularly armed groups.
“Russia will probably shine”
Tagesschau24: To what extent do you assume that Russia would get involved in a fire break at all?
Heinemann-Grüder: At the moment it can only be speculated. You may also make distraction maneuvers. Yesterday there was a meeting between the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lawrow and the OSCE Secretary of General Feridun Sinirlioglu, and from it you could see that you might try to postpone the agenda to another stage so as not to give the impression that you would not be constructive now.
But I suspect that the main reaction of the Russians will now be to shine. The media were yesterday and are now full of the Ukrainian attacks on Moscow that Barbaric Ukrainian attacks would take place here – at least that is mastered by the Russian media.
Sanction loosenings As an incentive?
Tagesschau24: Does this mean that you try to present it in such a way that you have to defend yourself against aggression from outside?
Heinemann-Grüder: Correct. As a result, the trustworthiness of the Ukrainian government would be questioned again. In Russia it was already of the opinion ten days ago, now Trump also demands that the supposed dictator Selenskyj will be discontinued. They are now off. There is no possibility of tackling Selenskyj with Trump.
I suspect that there is now a great confusion about how you react and that you will wait and see what the Americans offer you to get involved with an armistice. Whether sanctions are lifted, for example. Russia will make demands.
“The European sanctions are more important”
Tagesschau24: Wouldn't that be exactly the lever that the United States would have to enforce the ceasefire?
Heinemann-Grüder: On the one hand, yes – on the other hand, one has to say that European sanctions against Russia are much more crucial overall, because the trade between the USA and Russia is not very substantial anyway, neither for the Americans nor for the Russians.
In this respect, the Americans could only threaten with secondary sanctions. Or you could threaten to lift the range restrictions on American rockets (And who could then also meet Russian territory, editor's editor)what ex-President Joe Biden only allowed temporarily last year. Trump could therefore say, about: 'Because you are not constructive, we now allow the Ukrainians to shoot far into the Russian territory after a 30-day period.'
“The Russian leadership now has to tact”
Tagesschau24: They have spoken out by the confusion by the fact that Trump seemed to be put on the side of Putin and now apparently also moved away from him in a way. What can this trigger, especially for someone who is knitted like the Russian president?
Heinemann-Grüder: The Russian leadership now has to tact. And I think you don't know if Trump is still predictable. That means: There will be a great guessing rates about the motives of the Americans.
One thing is clear in the Kremlin: Trump wants to have this war from the American agenda and then want to deport the ball to the Europeans. Ten days ago, they saw an opportunity to take advantage of contradictions between the Europeans and the Americans as well as between the Americans and Ukraine. In this regard, it now looks rather bad for the Russians.
“Don't break out into euphoria yet”
Tagesschau24: The bottom line: What realistic opportunities do you see in all these tactical maneuvers that may now run in the background to completely end this war against Ukraine? And what price should Ukraine pay for it?
Heinemann-Grüder: We should not overload the possible ceasefire and the possible end of the war at the beginning. Statistically, ceasefire is very often broken and even by the UN peace agreements break in about 50 percent of cases. At the moment we should not break out of euphoria.
These are possible confidence -building measures that take place in the next four weeks. And you will then see whether there are communication channels over it, over the contact or front line that are resilient. And then you will draw conclusions from it. But we are not yet at a point where peace breaks.
One thing is clear: Ukraine will not come back all of its territories. The status quo is laid down. Kyiv wants to have security guarantees, and that seems to me to be the decisive factor. Who is ready to deliver robust guarantees? The Americans have already said they don't. Selenskyj says he needs 200,000 soldiers. Who of the Europeans would be willing to provide so many troops?
The conversation conducted Kathrin Schlaß, Tagesschau24. It was easily edited for the written version.
