analysis
Customs President Trump is a pressure medium. But his version of Canada and Mexico's concessions has great weaknesses. In the United States, the tariffs are also unpopular and there is massive criticism.
First Hü, then Hott: First, US President Donald Trump announced tariffs, then he took her back – at least for the next 30 days. Trump apparently not only pursues trading policy goals, but also uses them as a political means of pressure. For example, he wants to force Canada to better secure the border and to pay more into the defense budget:
We have large trade deficits with Canada, as with all other countries. I want Canada to become our 51st state. We finally protect you militarily.
How seriously he really means is unclear. However, it is clear that he wants to exert pressure.
Canada and Mexico should prevent both illegal migrants and fentanyl across the border to the USA, the spokeswoman for the White House, Karoline Leavitt: “The president makes both Canada and Mexico unmistakably clear that the US will be for illegal deadly drugs and illegal people. “
Wrong claims about concessions to Trump
Trump claimed that he had a lot of concessions. But that's not quite true. According to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Canada had already developed a $ 1.3 billion border plan and sent additional staff to the border.
In any case, only a tiny part of the fetanyl – 0.2 percent – reaches the USA – 0.2 percent. The majority – almost 97 percent – are smuggled into the USA via Mexico.
Mexico had also massively reinforced his border controls before Trump's threat of tariffs. The number of illegal border crossings decreased by almost 80 percent in the previous year.
Mexican border officials also confiscated large quantities of fentanyl and intensified their search for secret fentanyl laboratories. The often fatal drug is produced in Mexico with chemical substances produced in China and then smuggled from there to the USA.
Resistance from the USA
So what strategy Trump is pursuing? First of all, threaten to secure a better negotiating position – for example when it comes to negotiating the NAFTA successor contracts?
Trump himself had probably not expected so much headwind. After he had imposed the tariffs, a wave of resistance hit him. “Americans say 'no, no, no' to tariff, 51 percent do not want import fees,” explains CNN expert Harry duck.
The stock exchanges went to their knees – and even the conservative Wall Street Journal wrote about the “stupidest trade war in history”.
US citizens have to pay
The US economy also reacted with criticism. Matt Priest from the US individual trade association said on CNN that many consumer items from China – such as electronics, toys, toys, furniture or shoes – would be more expensive for US consumers. “Our imports from China had a value of $ ten billion.” Ten percent tariffs made about one billion dollars of additional costs. “This billion must be collected somewhere if the companies want to remain competitive,” said Priest.
Trump also threatened the EU with tariffs – because of supposedly unfair treatment. Experts think it is rather unlikely that in this case it will remain with a threatening backdrop.
