Low unemployment, high growth, stock exchanges near record high – for Trump, strong US economy is a chance. But he can also easily gamble the good starting situation.
“Trump inherits the strongest economy in modern history that the whole world envies him,” writes the time magazine. And Joe Biden is also convinced that he left the new US president “the strongest economy in the world”. But is that even true? Well, there are indeed worse economic starting situations to take over the helm as President of the United States.
Gold Lock Scenario in the USA
Experts speak of a “gold lily of the valley scenario”. Alluding to the extremely popular fairy tale “Gold Locks and the Drei Bears” (“Goldilocks and the Three Bears”) in the English-speaking world, the gold-off-lily scenario describes the perfect center: the economic growth is neither too high nor too low, the same applies to consumer prices And the interest.
Moderate growth, moderate inflation, moderate interest: In fact, this is what the perfect environment for employees, entrepreneurs and investors looks like. And the United States is currently quite close to perfection. “No matter which direction you look at the US economy, you can only come to the conclusion that it is very healthy,” emphasizes Markt expert Robert Rethfeld from Wellenreiter-Invest in conversation with tagesschau.de.
Solid growth course
This also shows a look at the statistics: the US economy is then on a solid growth course. In the third quarter, the gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 2.7 percent compared to the previous year. Also in 2024, according to the Conference Board forecast updated at the end of December, the US economy is likely to grow by 2.7 percent. For 2025, the economists predict an increase of 1.7 percent.
The US economy has returned to its old growth trend and – especially compared to Europe and especially Germany – presents itself well recovered from the break -in caused by the Corona crisis.
Stable location on the job market
The labor market also shows itself to be in good shape for Trump's inauguration and points to a prosperous economy: In December, 256,000 new jobs were created in the United States. The season -adjusted unemployment rate dropped from 4.2 to 4.1 percent and is therefore well below the long -term average. For comparison: On average, the unemployment rate in the USA from 1948 to 2024 was around 5.7 percent.
Falling Core inflation rate stir up hopes
There are also many indications that the US Federal Reserve Fed has managed to largely contain the high inflation due to the panda miebe without having too much harm to the economy. The inflation rate in December had risen slightly to a value of 2.9 percent compared to the same month in the previous year; However, economists positively remove the decline in the core rate. The medium -term trend thus further down.
Dow Jones near record high
Last but not least, the US stock market is almost in top form to take office in Trump. The leading index Dow Jones rose by 13 percent in 2024; He is currently only separating him from 3.6 percent from his December record high.
Wall Street will also be a good barometer for how well the economic agenda of the new US president is received. “If the market realizes that Trump is ruling too strongly, the Wall Street will react and face Trump with falling courses,” explains Markt expert Rethfeld. Then there would be pressure on politics, calls for changes would be loud.
Customs plans are at risk of US consumption
It is still completely unclear how exactly the economic policy under Trump will look. The fact is, however, that two core elements of Trump's economic agenda see experts critically. Economists fear a shortage of labor, rising wages and higher inflation rates, Trump should actually put his demand for mass deportation of illegal immigrants into practice.
But Trump's customs plans also contain great risks: “This would make a lot more expensive from the US consumer perspective. In fact, private consumption expenditure accounts for around 70 percent of American GDP.
Trump forces the Fed to act?
If there is a customs orgy under Trump, an increase in the US inflation rate would be inevitable. The Commerzbank economists Bernd Weidensteiner and Christoph Balz expect “around mid-2025 new tariffs come into force, which could increase the price level by about one percentage point in the loss of twelve months”.
The logical consequence: the FED would have to counteract accordingly and raise interest rates instead of lowering it. Recently, the prospects for further interest reductions had already clouded significantly. If the market was still on average from four interest reductions in 2025 in autumn 2024, it currently only expects an interest reduction. This reflects the investors' inflation expectations increased since the election of Trump.
Trump wants to “put up his stamp”
Quite a few experts see one of the greatest dangers to the US economy in the new president. “Trump should now be sensible and careful. If he intervenes politically, he can break a lot,” emphasizes Rethfeld.
The US economy has developed best in the past when politics has largely kept out, said the market expert. “Only Trump can't just do nothing. His ego urges him to put his stamp on the US economy. He wants to shine with his own achievements.”
“America First” as a danger to the USA?
Trump has announced that “America First” have a credo of his economic policy. This “America First” of the US economy itself could still be absurd.
Nevertheless would be out of place – if the largest economy in the world weakens, this would have devastating consequences for the global economy. It is not for nothing that it says: “If the USA sneezes, the rest of the world gets a runny nose.”
Volker Hirth, HR, Tagesschau, 20.01.2025 07:30 a.m.