Raw materials for security. President Selenskyj probably signs a raw material agreement with the United States in Washington with this calculation. But what scope it has in the end remains open.
With the personal meeting between Wolodymyr Selenskyj and Donald Trump, Ukraine has already diplomatically achieved a small stage. Ultimately, you can hear it from Kiev government circles, be it the US President alone who decide on the United States' foreign policy.
The Ukrainian President will probably use today's meeting in Washington to once again explain the Ukrainian perspective on the war against his country. Central to the Ukrainians, security guarantees are central to possible negotiations with Russia. The Americans, on the other hand, initially aim at a quick ceasefire.
The raw materials of the 21st century
Raw materials against weapons – that was originally the consideration of the Ukrainian leadership. Because Ukraine has one of the largest mineral deposits in Europe, explains the Ukrainian geologist Oleksij Falkowytsch.
According to Ukrainian information, the country has 21 of the 34 of the EU as critically classified raw materials. These soil treasures are considered an economic basis of the 21st century. They are indispensable for high-tech products from the aerospace industry, as well as for the nuclear and arms industry.
The world market leader in this area is China. Much of the minerals remains in China. China also controls a significant part of these raw materials in Africa. The Ukrainian occurrence of rare earths could help reduce dependencies.
Many details still unclear
The United States is a leading importer of critical raw materials such as titanium, for which there are few affordable replacement products. In the future, Washington Titan could move from Ukraine, where there are more than 30 occurrences, especially in the center and northwest of the country.
The yields from the raw material sector should then flow into a fund that is to be used for the reconstruction of Ukraine. At least that's how the consideration is behind the now discussed raw material contract. However, many details are unclear, also about the quality and eligibility of the Ukrainian raw materials – important details that have affected the profitability of the mining, says geologist Falkovytsch.
The current agreement is only a framework contract, says Selenskyj. Concrete bilateral contracts would be needed to actually exploit Ukrainian mineral resources together. Selenskyj's visit is now about the details of the contract. For Ukraine, it is clear that the raw materials are used together with the USA and want to get security guarantees, says security expert Nico Lange.
Inaccurate data basis
Hanna Liwentsewa, Chair of the Ukrainian Geologist Association, estimates that around five percent of the global mineral resources are in Ukraine. This also included around 19 million tons of graphite, which is important for the production of batteries for electric vehicles, electrodes and solar cells. They make up about 20 percent of global resources.
However, not only the paper that Selenskyj and Trump wants to sign is vaguely formulated. The estimates about critical raw materials and rare earths in Ukraine are also inaccurate. Because in many cases they are based on data from the Soviet period.
In order to get an exact picture of the raw material deposit and appropriate funding opportunities, millions would first have to be invested, according to experts. Because many of the deposits in Ukraine – i.e. the places where mineral resources were found – have not yet been finally investigated, says Falkowytsch.
An investment in the future
Many Ukrainian business representatives are still convinced of the idea behind the agreement. They argue that foreign investors could help open up the mineral resources.
Ksenia Orynchak, director of the national association of the raw material industry in Ukraine, is also convinced that American investments could also have a certain protection for Ukraine. A geopolitical alliance can develop from this in the future.
The hope of Ukraine
However, specific security guarantees on the part of the United States are not to be expected from today's meetings. Again and again Trump had publicly made it clear that he sees the Europeans responsible.
The Ukrainian president is in a difficult negotiation position. And yet the paper to be signed today also shows: Ukraine has apparently withstanded pressure from Washington. The current declaration of intent contains better conditions than the designs before.
